What The Future Holds For PokerStars New Jersey Entry

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Thursday, August 28th, 2014 | Written by Lucy Brown

Isai Scheinberg may have stepped down from any involvement with PokerStars parent company Rational Group in 2012, but by the end of 2013 a federal indictment still outstanding against the poker room’s founder was cited as a reason by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) for locking the business out of the state’s online gambling industry.

Amaya Gaming’s purchase of the Rational Group this year for $4.9 billion and its subsequent change of management has since paved the way for PokerStars return to New Jersey iGaming, and as the State Senator Raymond Lesniak, recently commented:

“I think PokerStars gaining approval would be the best thing to happen to the New Jersey Internet gaming industry, the biggest possible boost, because PokerStars has shown to be the biggest and the best online poker site.”

The question still remains, however, how much of an impact the online poker giant would actually have on the state’s online poker market?

Using Spain as a predictive model

When looking at what The Garden State can expect from the site’s launch in its regulated market, one needs to find an accurate comparative model such as PokerStars’ presence in the Spanish “ring fenced” gaming market. Looking at PokerStars.se makes more sense than looking at PokerStars.com, and as Robert DellaFave explains in an article appearing in onlinepokerreport.com:

“PokerStars.com serves the greater part of the free world. The number of grinders playing concurrently on the site often eclipses the population of New Jersey’s smaller counties. In short: It would not be prudent to use PokerStars.com as a measuring stick for its NJ poker room.”

PokerStars to dominate NJ’s iPoker landscape

In June 2012, PokerStars began operating in Spain at the same time as 888poker, and since then the two sites have dominated the country’s iPoker landscape with PokerStars accounting for 71.3% of Spain’s cash game market, 888poker 20.4%, with iPoker (3.5%), and PartyPoker (3.3%) a long way back.

Conversely, the situation in New Jersey is currently as follows with PartyPoker NJ enjoying a 41.1% share of the cash game market, WSOP NJ 38.7%, and AAPN (us.888poker.com) 20.2%.

Following a PokerStars New Jersey entry, however, the industry is likely to eventually resemble that of Spain, according to DellaFave. Nevertheless, the process may take a while as in NJ’s case the market has already been populated by a number of sites who have gained experience and refined their strategies since the first site launched more than a year ago.

Tournaments the main beneficiary of PokerStars NJ

PokerScout is currently showing 1,100 cash game players over a seven day period in Spain, with a peak of 2,252 players, while in New Jersey there are on average 330+ cash players online at any one time. Whereas the number of cash game players is forecast to reach up to 800 players shortly after PokerStars NJ is launched, it is in the online poker arena where even more spectacular gains are expected to be attained.

PokerStars is renowned for organizing the best tournament schedules in the business and during peak hours in Spain almost 50,000 players log onto PokerStars.es, representing 0.1% of the country’s population of 47.1 million people. Assuming a New Jersey population of 10.5 million, then a comparison would mean nearly 10,000 people could hit NJ iPoker sites at peak times, compared to its current estimated number of 2,500 players.

Welcome bonuses and promotions

Just like PokerStars.es, the company’s NJ equivalent is likely to also offer an initial generous welcome package of 100% match bonus up to €500, although in New Jersey that figure could reach as high as $1,000 as the site attempts to grow its market. However, that figure will likely settle back to a more standard $500 match bonus once it gains a foothold.

As far as other type promotions are concerned, Robert DellaFave, had this to say: “I wouldn’t expect much after the initial rollout period. PokerStars.es thrives not necessarily on needing to launch the promotional equivalent of fire sales, much like 888 does in New Jersey, but instead it relies on building long term loyalty through its poker product, stellar VIP rewards program, carefully constructed tournament schedule, and exemplary customer service.”

PokerStars entry as early as October 1st

If all goes according to plan, it is believed PokerStars could enter the NJ market as early as October 1st, using the Resort Casino Hotel as its Atlantic City casino partner. However, there are a number of hurdles that could yet scupper the potential deal, not least an increasing opposition to the so-called “bad actor” from such corners as chairman of the Assembly’s Tourism, Gaming and Arts Committee, Ralph Caputo, who in his scathing attack in the Star Ledger labeled PokerStars a “disgraced online gambling giant,” and “an insult to everyone who has gone under scrutiny to work or do business in the casino industry over the past 30 years.”