GamblingCompliance iGaming Predictions For 2015

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Wednesday, March 18th, 2015 | Written by Shane Larson

GamblingCompliance (GC) is a company specializing in providing analytical information about the online gambling industry, and in its latest report entitled “US Internet Gambling In Focus: 2014 and 2015” the company has provided an insight into which direction the US iGaming industry was likely headed in 2015. While the report paints an optimistic picture of the road ahead, GC warned its forecast was still largely based upon educated guesses, and as the report points out:

“We acknowledge that Internet gambling legislative forecasting is far more art than science. Yet endeavor to forecast we must.”

Three Potential Scenarios

The GamblingCompliance report lays out three different scenarios that could play out in 2015, ranging from zero up to three states passing legalization this year. According to the report, the states most likely to enact internet gaming legislation in 2015 are California, Pennsylvania, and the US Virgin Islands, which while not technically a US state does still come under the country’s jurisdiction.

Needless to say, California, Pennsylvania, and the US Virgin Islands adopting legislation presents the most bullish forecast of US iGaming in 2015, although the GC report did warn that if legislation is passed in California, it is likely to apply just to online poker and not casino type games. The report further suggests another state on the fringe of the internet gambling debate, such as Iowa, may also decide to take action and join the other states approving online gambling in 2015.

Not A Poker-only Market

GamblingCompliance makes a point that online gambling legalization goes beyond just embracing an online poker-only market, with the report suggesting various states across the USA are carefully studying the regulated markets of Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware before devising their own legislation models. Using New Jersey as an example, the report highlights the increasing gap between online casino and online poker revenues since the Garden State regulated iGaming in 2013, with online casino games up by 93% per capita, compared to poker down by 29% over the same period. This worrying statistic may convince various states to steer clear from the poker room model, and as GC explains:

“In 2015, we expect the significant growth disparity between New Jersey Internet casino win and Internet poker win to be a key talking point in states that are weighing whether to legalize Internet poker, only.”

Shared Liquidity A Must

With online casino games outpacing poker by a significant margin, the main way in which poker may be able to return to its glory days would be through the introduction of shared liquidity between regulated states. Whilst partially combining player pools between 888poker and WSOP.com in New Jersey has had only a minimal effect on overall traffic numbers so far, a fully shared player pool between New Jersey and Nevada on the other hand could have the potential to generate greater interest in internet poker.

Likewise, PokerStars being granted a license to offer its brand in New Jersey could also have a potentially huge impact on online poker growth. Nevertheless, PokerStars’ approval has been delayed for more than a year now although in December 2014 Adam Krejcik from Eilers Research suggested a February launch, while in January 2015, State Sen. Ray Lesniak seemed bullish about a March entry for the world’s biggest online poker room.

Federal iGaming Ban Will Not Pass

In spite of all these different scenarios, the GC report predicts that any attempts to ban online gambling at a federal level are ultimately doomed to fail in 2015, and as an extract from the study states:

“Federal consideration of Internet gambling tends to occur late in the second year of each two-year session of Congress. Thus, our assumption of no legislative movement under any 2015 scenario.”

Expansion Of Internet Lotteries

Perhaps the least startling prediction made by the GamblingCompliance report is that Internet lottery sales are likely to expand in 2015. This is hardly a surprise as already 12 US states have adopted legislation permitting online lottery game sales, representing almost a quarter of all states in the country. According to GC’s most optimistic forecast, Kentucky will join this growing club during the year, while somewhere between 8 and 11 other states will introduce internet gambling bills in their legislatures in 2015.